Groundhog Day, How Often Has Punxsutawney Phil Been Right?

Groundhog Day, How Often Has Punxsutawney Phil Been Right? A look at the history of using groundhogs to predict either six more weeks of winter or an early spring

Punxsutawney Phil, the most famous groundhog in the U.S., will forecast on Thursday when winter will end.

The tradition dates back to the days of the ancient Romans, when people used hibernating animals, like hedgehogs, to predict when the weather would get warmer.

Groundhog Day, How Often Has Punxsutawney Phil Been Right?

The town of Punxsutawney, Pa., made history in 1887 when it started its own annual tradition of using groundhogs to make a prediction. The town named the prognosticating groundhog Punxsutawney Phil.

What is the history of Groundhog Day?

The ancient Romans celebrated the tradition on Feb. 5, but instead of looking for groundhogs to make a prediction, they used hedgehogs, according to groundhog experts. There weren’t any groundhogs in Europe.

The date changed to Feb. 2 after the fall of the Roman Empire and was rolled into a Christian tradition called Candlemas. That involved people lighting candles and putting them in their window or church to honor the Virgin Mary. Germans, however, continued using hibernating animals to predict the end of winter.

How did Groundhog Day start in the U.S.?

German immigrants imported the tradition in the 1700s when they settled in what is now Pennsylvania. Without hedgehogs, the German settlers turned to groundhogs to make the weather predictions.

In Punxsutawney, the townsfolk gathered at Gobbler’s Knob in 1887, a wooded area about two miles out of town, to mark the start of the town’s first official Groundhog Day celebration, according to the Punxsutawney event’s organizers.

Who are the other famous groundhogs?

While Punxsutawney Phil is the most famous of the weather-predicting groundhogs, there are others.

Woodstock Willie makes predictions in Woodstock, Ill. Staten Island Chuck, from New York City’s Staten Island Zoo, will also be making a prediction on Thursday.

Milltown Mel, a weather-predicting groundhog in New Jersey, will miss his second consecutive Groundhog Day. The last Milltown Mel died in 2022 and missed the festivities last year. The organizers of the event said on Facebook they were unable to have a groundhog available for this year as well.

How does Groundhog Day work?

If the groundhog emerges from its burrow on Feb. 2 and sees its shadow, that means there will be six more weeks of cold weather, according to tradition. If the groundhog doesn’t see its shadow, then warmer weather will soon usher in an early spring.

The 30th Anniversary of “Groundhog Day”

The 1993 comedy “Groundhog Day” starring Bill Murray and Andie MacDowell is celebrating its 30th anniversary this year. In the film, Mr. Murray plays Phil Connors, a cynical TV weatherman who travels to Punxsutawney to cover the annual groundhog event. He becomes trapped in a time loop, reliving the day countless times.

“Groundhog Day” made its theatrical debut on Feb. 2, 1993 in DuBois, Pa., according to IMDB. DuBois is located about 20 miles northeast of Punxsutawney.

How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?

Phil’s Track Record

The tradition goes that if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow on Feb. 2, six frigid weeks will follow. In the past 10 years, Phil’s prediction has aligned with the weather four times.

Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions compared to the U.S. national temperature

The most famous groundhog in the U.S. has a hit-or-miss record when predicting the weather. Punxsutawney Phil only made the correct prediction 40% of the time from 2013 to 2022, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Professional meteorologists with NOAA are forecasting that the Northeast has at least a 33% chance of having warmer-than-typical temperatures from February through April. Most of the South has at least a 40% chance of higher-than-typical temperatures through that same time frame, according to NOAA.

The Northwest, along with Montana and the Dakotas, have at least a 33% chance of having colder-than-typical temperatures through April, according to NOAA.

The Northeast in particular has had a mild winter. New York City broke its record in late January for the most consecutive days without snow. The city recorded its first dusting of snow on Wednesday.

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